Dune, prescience and the Syrian crisis

[PanCotzky]

Here's just a thing to consider.

The history of the Syrian crisis:
Tyrant by the name Bashar with his friend Vladimir destroy their political enemies in a desert muslim country which produces the main fuel of the world. They are confronted by a force of muslim fighters, led by the idea of a worldwide muslim state, governed by the Mahdi or his offspring. And they all worship giant desert pipes that produces that precious fuel.

Also keep in mind that "Dune" is a novel about prescience. I don't know how much Spice that took but our good old Frankie definitely saw something.

Which begs for a question: how hard actually it is to predict the future? Dune is definitely a fiction but now when I think about the prescience concept is pretty realistic. Well, it is not if you describe it the same way as Frank did. But if you just imagine that the whole world is just rolls foreword, moved by the social inertia than a person with a good historical perception would be able to predict the future based on a repeating historical patterns (also that repeats the words of Leto II). But the future only predictable if it is inert. If some other person with the same historical perception intrudes into a natural roll then the history takes an unexpected turn. Much like in "Dune" where two prescient persons can't foresee each other's actions. What do you think about it, gentleman and ladies?

[Omphalos]

Here's just a thing to consider.

The history of the Syrian crisis:
Tyrant by the name Bashar with his friend Vladimir destroy their political enemies in a desert muslim country which produces the main fuel of the world. They are confronted by a force of muslim fighters, led by the idea of a worldwide muslim state, governed by the Mahdi or his offspring. And they all worship giant desert pipes that produces that precious fuel.

Careful with that stretching. You might hurt your back.

Also keep in mind that "Dune" is a novel about prescience. I don't know how much Spice that took but our good old Frankie definitely saw something.

Are you asking what kind of drugs FH took? Not sure I get this.

Which begs for a question: how hard actually it is to predict the future? Dune is definitely a fiction but now when I think about the prescience concept is pretty realistic. Well, it is not if you describe it the same way as Frank did. But if you just imagine that the whole world is just rolls foreword, moved by the social inertia than a person with a good historical perception would be able to predict the future based on a repeating historical patterns (also that repeats the words of Leto II). But the future only predictable if it is inert. If some other person with the same historical perception intrudes into a natural roll then the history takes an unexpected turn. Much like in "Dune" where two prescient persons can't foresee each other's actions. What do you think about it, gentleman and ladies?

I don't really get this either. I suspect there may be a language issue here, but that is certainly OK. In any event FH prescience is metaphysics, not historical analysis. And while the idea of historical analysis sounds like it might be the magic bullet, it rarely works as intended. Might be a good way to prepare for multiple possible contingencies, but not as a way to decide exactly what to prepare for.

[PanCotzky]

First of all pardon me for my English. It is actually not my home language so it can be difficult to understand me, thank you for your patience.

Also keep in mind that "Dune" is a novel about prescience. I don't know how much Spice that took but our good old Frankie definitely saw something.

Are you asking what kind of drugs FH took? Not sure I get this.

That was a joke.

Here's just a thing to consider.

The history of the Syrian crisis:
Tyrant by the name Bashar with his friend Vladimir destroy their political enemies in a desert muslim country which produces the main fuel of the world. They are confronted by a force of muslim fighters, led by the idea of a worldwide muslim state, governed by the Mahdi or his offspring. And they all worship giant desert pipes that produces that precious fuel.

Careful with that stretching. You might hurt your back.

Well, that could be just an interesting coincidence. Not saying anything. But actually the Fremen was based of the Isma'ili (wider known as Assassins) who's base of operations was the Masyaf fortress in Syria. There exists a historical tendencies of reemerging of historical radical groups. The radical doctrines takes root easily and reemerge every time when things gets nasty. For example if some day the USA will experience a serious political crisis that could shutter its very foundation the next day the streets will be filled with Ku Klux Klan freaks while the south confederacies will emerge all around the country (not only in south). It's a sociological phenomena. Passionaries will always be dragged to a radical political ideas of the past. I don't think that Frank foresaw the ISIS. I think he just described the situation that so common and predictable that it actually almost happened. And Isma'ili was used just because they are the most interesting radical faction of the Arabian peninsula.

Which begs for a question: how hard actually it is to predict the future? Dune is definitely a fiction but now when I think about the prescience concept is pretty realistic. Well, it is not if you describe it the same way as Frank did. But if you just imagine that the whole world is just rolls foreword, moved by the social inertia than a person with a good historical perception would be able to predict the future based on a repeating historical patterns (also that repeats the words of Leto II). But the future only predictable if it is inert. If some other person with the same historical perception intrudes into a natural roll then the history takes an unexpected turn. Much like in "Dune" where two prescient persons can't foresee each other's actions. What do you think about it, gentleman and ladies?

I don't really get this either. I suspect there may be a language issue here, but that is certainly OK. In any event FH prescience is metaphysics, not historical analysis. And while the idea of historical analysis sounds like it might be the magic bullet, it rarely works as intended. Might be a good way to prepare for multiple possible contingencies, but not as a way to decide exactly what to prepare for.

But the prescience in the dune universe wasn't that accurate ether. There was ambiguities, lack of details, black spots. I always thought that Dune prescience was just a very potent intuition. An extrapolation of a prescient person's experience on the future, possible because of a powerful boost to their mind, given by Spice. And it is consistent with Other Memories idea. The more experience the prescient has the more accurate and detailed the prophecy will be. After opening of his Other Memory Paul expanded his abilities vastly. Yes, I understand that there are many things in the books that contradict this theory. But they all can be just a literary allegories designed to make the main idea more clear. Because they don't cancel this idea out. They just make it simpler to imagine.

[SandRider]

no.
just no.

[lotek]

Here's another reason to dislike IS, they ruined the word jihad for us.
I mean, the NSA or whoever is watching the interwebz is probably already sending the men in black now, where's the fun in that I tell ya.