Did Hawat screw up?

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Serkanner
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Re: Did Hawat screw up?

Postby Serkanner » 08 Sep 2017 15:36

pcqypcqy wrote:
georgiedenbro wrote:
pcqypcqy wrote:A lot of people have said there was nothing they could have done, but I think they could/would have gone renegade had they thought this scale invasion was likely. They were already thinking about it when being forced to walk into the trap of what they thought was a normal scale invasion. Had they gotten wind of any of this, they would have bugged out instantly I think.


They had other tools at their disposal had they seen it coming. Exposure would be the most effective, as the Landsraad would have prevented it themselves. The attack either had to be totally secret or else be called off. Also, even if the attack happened as planned but the shield stayed up, it might have allowed the Atreides to stall long enough to send word about what was happening. The Sardaukar were only going to stay so long as the Emperor wasn't implicated.



These are all good points.

Depends on how invovled/complicit the Guild were in all of this. At the very least, they knew about it all to have permitted the transport of all the troops. Any communication would had to have been via the guild, or else a radio signal at the speed of light, however I don't think this is how communication was run between planets in Dune. So if the Guild were complicit, and didn't want the message to get out, they could have just isolated the Atreides until the battle was won.


I think the involvement of the Guild makes it quite clear the invasion had no other possible outcome than a Harkonnen success. The Guild had prescience as a tool.
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Re: Did Hawat screw up?

Postby georgiedenbro » 08 Sep 2017 15:48

Serkanner wrote:I think the involvement of the Guild makes it quite clear the invasion had no other possible outcome than a Harkonnen success. The Guild had prescience as a tool.


I agree with that, the plan was likely verified to be locked up tight. However what they couldn't see was Paul, and certainly not past the nexus point that takes place near the end of the book. So while they knew the plan in the short term would work (up until the Harkonnen success) they didn't know the long-term ramification of it. So ironically, by locking down the future the way they did they actually guaranteed that they'd be brought to their knees. That's the problem with toying around with the future when you're shitty oracles :D It actually explains why they're so paranoid about perturbations and change; they probably know how weak they are at predicting chaotic things.
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Re: Did Hawat screw up?

Postby Suk on this » 25 Feb 2021 16:47

But why were there so many Sardauker? Why were the Guild so heavily involved? Thawat was missing one vital piece of information - the Guild wanted Paul Atreides dead. There was not just Harkonnen and and the Emperor, but the Guild too had an interest.

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Re: Did Hawat screw up?

Postby Freakzilla » 26 Feb 2021 10:33

Suk on this wrote:But why were there so many Sardauker? Why were the Guild so heavily involved?


They were on loan to the Harkonnens from the emperor, he didn't like Duke Leto either. The Baron paid the Guild for their transport.

Thawat was missing one vital piece of information - the Guild wanted Paul Atreides dead. There was not just Harkonnen and and the Emperor, but the Guild too had an interest.


I think you might be injecting a scene from the movie into the book. We don't even see a Guildsman until the end of the book. They only really became concerned because the spice was threatened
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Re: Did Hawat screw up?

Postby Suk on this » 28 Feb 2021 17:53

Freakzilla wrote:
Suk on this wrote:But why were there so many Sardauker? Why were the Guild so heavily involved?


They were on loan to the Harkonnens from the emperor, he didn't like Duke Leto either. The Baron paid the Guild for their transport.

Thawat was missing one vital piece of information - the Guild wanted Paul Atreides dead. There was not just Harkonnen and and the Emperor, but the Guild too had an interest.


I think you might be injecting a scene from the movie into the book. We don't even see a Guildsman until the end of the book. They only really became concerned because the spice was threatened


Damn! You are right. I had attempted to watch a fan edit (it hadn't helped). Amazing how these things insinuate themselves. I'll say nothing else on the matter until I have read the section where I think this, though, may be hinted at (I may also be mis-remembering that). It made sense to me that a Mentat, shorn of vital information, would reach incorrect conclusions. I mean, 10 legions instead of 1...that's a pretty big miss, that has really...like, disastrously, under-estimated the Baron's desires.

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Re: Did Hawat screw up?

Postby Serkanner » 02 Mar 2021 03:05

Suk on this wrote:[ I mean, 10 legions instead of 1...that's a pretty big miss, that has really...like, disastrously, under-estimated the Baron's desires.


Dune:

"Don't distract me," Piter said. "While Hawat's occupied with the Lady Jessica, we'll divert him further with uprisings in a few garrison towns and the
like. These will be put down. The Duke must believe he's gaining a measure of security. Then, when the moment is ripe, we'll signal Yueh and move in with our major force . . . ah . . . "
"Go ahead, tell him all of it," the Baron said.
"We'll move in strengthened by two legions of Sardaukar disguised in Harkonnen livery."
"Sardaukar!" Feyd-Rautha breathed. His mind focused on the dread Imperial troops, the killers without mercy, the soldier fanatics of the Padishah Emperor.


"There it is," the Duke said, "exactly as we expected. We'll have to move fast with the Fremen. I'd like five full battalions of Fremen troops before the
first CHOAM audit."
"That's not much time, Sire," Hawat said.
"We don't have much time, as you well know. They'll be here with Sardaukar disguised as Harkonnens at the first opportunity. How many do you think they'll ship in, Thufir?"
"Four or five battalions all told, Sire. No more. Guild troop-transport costs being what they are."
"Then five battalions of Fremen plus our own forces ought to do it. Let us have a few captive Sardaukar to parade in front of the Landsraad Council and
matters will be much different--profits or no profits."


The Baron noted the absence of salute, the disdain in the Sardaukar's manner, and his unease grew. There was only the one legion of them locally--ten
brigades
--reinforcing the Harkonnen legions, but the Baron did not fool himself. That one legion was perfectly capable of turning on the Harkonnens and overcoming them.


"Anger is one thing, violence another," the Count said. "Let me caution you: Should an unfortunate accident occur to me here the Great Houses all would learn what you did on Arrakis. They've long suspected how you do business."
"The only recent business I can recall," the Baron said, "was transportation of several legions of Sardaukar to Arrakis."
"You think you could hold that over the Emperor's head?"
"I wouldn't think of it!"


"The Padishah Emperor himself is there," Paul said. He looked at the rock ceiling of his cell. "With his favorite Truthsayer and five legions of
Sardaukar.
The old Baron Vladimir Harkonnen is there with Thufir Hawat beside him and seven ships jammed with every conscript he could muster. Every Great House has its raiders above us . . . waiting."


It wasn't the lighter that excited Stilgar's awe, Paul knew, but the construction for which the lighter was only the centerpost. A single metal
hutment, many stories tall, reached out in a thousand-meter circle from the base of the lighter -- a tent composed of interlocking metal leaves -- the temporary lodging place for five legions of Sardaukar and His Imperial Majesty, the Padishah Emperor Shaddam IV.
From his position squatting at Paul's left, Gurney Halleck said: "I count nine levels to it. Must be quite a few Sardaukar in there."
"Five legions," Paul said.


"The storm comes, Majesty. I sent them to inspect our perimeter lest the Fremen attack under cover of the sand."
"Perimeter," the Emperor said. The word came out as though it puckered his mouth. "The storm won't be much here in the basin, and that Fremen rabble won't attack while I'm here with five legions of Sardaukar."
"Surely not, Majesty," the Baron said, "But error on the side of caution
cannot be censured."
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and wrote a Dune Novel."

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Re: Did Hawat screw up?

Postby georgiedenbro » 11 Jun 2021 19:54

Hm. It may be possible to reconcile those numbers if you sort of string together a narrative around it. First we assume two legions was the original plan, but that the Baron could only afford to pay for passage for one in the end. The Duke Leto's prediction could just be seen as underestimating how much the Baron could really send; and this could in part be due to underestimating the sheer volume of his spice hoard. When talking to Fenring, the Baron may have been exaggerating how many Sardaukar were really sent, since the number wouldn't matter anyway (any amount at all was illegal). And finally, the arrival of the Emperor seems to have involved bringing five legions along with him, as that number stays consistent.

But why were there so many Sardauker? Why were the Guild so heavily involved? Thawat was missing one vital piece of information - the Guild wanted Paul Atreides dead. There was not just Harkonnen and and the Emperor, but the Guild too had an interest.


As Freakzilla mentioned, the Guild scene is in the Lynch film, not the book. That being said, I think Lynch was fairly on-point in assuming that such a meeting may have happened. And IMO another major player wanting Paul dead was the BG. But despite all that, I think Hawat's major mistake was in not suspecting Yueh. True, he may have underestimated the sheer power of the forces being sent, but then again the forces being sent underestimated just how quickly Leto could make alliance with the Fremen. So from that standpoint it may be a wash, or even tilted in Leto's favor. They definitely knew they'd be facing a major attack either way, so that was no surprise. It's the Yueh element that shaped the course of events for both sides. For the Baron it obviously allowed him to take the palace and kill Leto, and for the Atreides he alone is why Paul and Jessica survived. So Yueh, for all intents and purposes, took down both the Harkonnens and the Corrinos in a way no one predicted, Hawat included. But one interesting thing is that once the Yueh plot played out, Hawat seemed quite able to re-establish his predictive powers leading up to the end of the book.

I think one of the takeaways of Dune is that seemingly minor events (the individual choices of a few people) shaped events more than macro-predictions and large forces at work. Between Jessica choosing to have a son, Yueh choosing to betray the Atreides but also save them, and Fenring choosing to finally back Paul rather than Shaddam, the Guild were at a total loss to be able to see forward. Large-scale events and strategies seemed to be within their capabilities, but not to be able to see past choice at the level of certain individuals.
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Re: Did Hawat screw up?

Postby Serkanner » 12 Jun 2021 05:13

georgiedenbro wrote:I think one of the takeaways of Dune is that seemingly minor events (the individual choices of a few people) shaped events more than macro-predictions and large forces at work.


This is also true in our own history and also present day events. We have of course the (theory of the) butterfly effect but that is not what I mean here. An example of what I mean: Adolf Hitler's father Alois (born as an illegitimate peasant) changed his name from Schicklgruber to Hitler after he managed to convince the authorities his father was in fact Johann Hiedler and that the registration as "father: unknown" was incorrect. Then he changed it from Hiedler to Hitler (used both actually) and registered his children with the surname Hitler. Now imagine millions of people shouting: "Heil Schicklgruber!" ... i find that highly unlikely.
"... the mystery of life isn't a problem to solve but a reality to experience."

“There is no escape—we pay for the violence of our ancestors.”

Sandrider: "Keith went to Bobo's for a weekend of drinking, watched some DVDs,
and wrote a Dune Novel."