Prescience


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Phaedrus
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Post by Phaedrus »

SandChigger wrote:Yes, but empiricism is historicism...or histrionics. Positivism is hermeneutics...or maybe hismeneutics.

Anyway, black is white, today is tomorrow, and in the final analysis, Kirk is Spock.

:?
If you are serious, we have entered religious theory, not mathematics.
What...?

Are you guys talking about a different calculus than me? :|
You aren't thinking or really existing unless you're willing to risk even your own sanity in the judgment of your existence.
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Post by SandChigger »

I was talking about the stuff on my teeth...so, yeah. :P
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HoosierDaddy

Post by HoosierDaddy »

Phaedrus wrote: What...?

Are you guys talking about a different calculus than me? :|
Just remember, don't offend The Spaghetti Monster. His divine powers promise stripper factories and beer volcanoes in your afterlife.

(I.E. not a supreme deity to be messed with)

:wink:
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Post by Freakzilla »

HoosierDaddy wrote:
Phaedrus wrote: What...?

Are you guys talking about a different calculus than me? :|
Just remember, don't offend The Spaghetti Monster. His divine powers promise stripper factories and beer volcanoes in your afterlife.

(I.E. not a supreme deity to be messed with)

:wink:
RAmen!
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Post by Fantômas »

Phaedrus wrote:(If anyone can remember a place where a prescient sees a past event happening differently, please tell me. It seems that this happens at one point, but I don't remember where. That would be conclusive evidence that a prescient can not only see what MAY happen, but what MAY HAVE happened, if things had been different.)
I do not know about the MAY part; Paul saw the Past by looking at records in the future.
Doesn't Paul have OM? why does Paul needs to look at the future to find about his and his mother's anscentry?

page 194 Ace hardcover edition: October 1999

I've walked the future, I've looked at a record, I've seen a place, I have all the data. We're Harkonnens.
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Post by Freakzilla »

fantomas wrote:
Phaedrus wrote:(If anyone can remember a place where a prescient sees a past event happening differently, please tell me. It seems that this happens at one point, but I don't remember where. That would be conclusive evidence that a prescient can not only see what MAY happen, but what MAY HAVE happened, if things had been different.)
I do not know about the MAY part; Paul saw the Past by looking at records in the future.
Doesn't Paul have OM? why does Paul needs to look at the future to find about his and his mother's anscentry?

page 194 Ace hardcover edition: October 1999

I've walked the future, I've looked at a record, I've seen a place, I have all the data. We're Harkonnens.
Paul had not yet taken the Water of Life at that point, so no, he did not have Other Memory yet.
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Post by orald »

And besides, even with full OM he can't see anything in the past that wasn't seen/learned about by his direct ancestors. That's pretty limited.
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Post by Freakzilla »

orald wrote:And besides, even with full OM he can't see anything in the past that wasn't seen/learned about by his direct ancestors. That's pretty limited.
True, but Jessica, her mother and Baron Harkonnen are direct ancestors.
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Post by orald »

Freakzilla wrote:
orald wrote:And besides, even with full OM he can't see anything in the past that wasn't seen/learned about by his direct ancestors. That's pretty limited.
True, but Jessica, her mother and Baron Harkonnen are direct ancestors.
I know, I was refering to seeing the past in general.
In memory of Perach, who suffered and died needlessly.

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the nature of prescience

Post by Tycho »

i was going to start my own post about 'the nature of prescience' but then i found this and it seems like a rich discussion to add to
this is somewhat related to the 'pearls of consciousness' discussion, but i'll get to that later

When you talk about Dune, the major plot device is prescience - characters who can 'see' into the future. But is prescience itself the main theme, considering Herbert leaves its mechanics intentionally vague with clues scattered over thousands of pages, or is it merely a lens through which to view the real theme? IMO the main theme is the patterns of humanity/society on a historical or even evolutionary timescale. Hence the evoking of old feudalistic power structures and guilds and religions and more immediate motifs like sword-fighting, all of which seem initially jarring in a sci-fi setting. You don't need to hunt for clues with this theme, it's not indirect, it's actually tackled head-on both through plot development and explicit conversation and even the chapter epigraphs. Prescience, though, is more of a mystery.

I am going to employ a Dune-inspired model/analogy to describe prescience which may even be a metaphor Herbert intended. Remember the passage at the start of GEoD where Leto II describes his Worm-like sensitivity to physical phenomena, ending with the assertion that he is the greatest predator that ever existed (or ever will). Let's take that a step further:

When Leto II uses his prescience his mind becomes aware of a higher dimension (the books use this terminology), which consists of agency/will itself (... bear with me here). Just as the sandworm becomes aware of the slightest movement on the desert surface, the oracle becomes aware of the slightest CHANGE to the universe, or the slightest DECISION. Oracles have an ear to 'the Desert of Time' (to coin a new phrase).

Now, Guild Navigators have 'linear prescience' - they can only sense what follows on an inevitable path, which is ok when you're just trying to avoid comets and black holes. The whole universe is essentially linear, for while there is variation on the quantum level, on a grand scale, nothing changes the course of events, not even animals (which are unpredictable but only on a very local level)... EXCEPT that HUMAN BEINGS with consciousness and free will can change things and override the inevitability. Guild Navigators cannot project how human-driven events might pan out, but the kwisatz-haderach has the ability/knowledge (probably through OM and life experience and/or mentat projection) to envision these futures.

BUT there is noise. The worm in the desert can hear the masses moving about the cities, but it's all just random, conflicting noise. But say people in the city organized a mass rally/march, that would form a strong enough pattern/signature for the worm to distinguish; or if someone set out onto the desert floor, away from the noise, the worm can hone in on their signal. Similarly, the Desert of Time vibrates with the signal of countless decisions, but the oracle can only hear broader patterns of many inter-connected signals. (somewhat like how an individual neuron firing means nothing, but a whole set firing can indicate a specific thought/action)

What a kwisatz-haderach does is detect the signatures of all the social structures, all the economic systems, all the key players with minions, all the 'invisible parts of society.' Every decision no matter where in the universe is instantly reflected in the higher dimension, the Desert of Time, and fed back to the oracle. The more important the decision, and the more people involved, the clearer an oracle can discern it. This is how Leto II, Paul and Alia can be 'many places at once,' and use their OM and knowledge to interpret the signatures. They see the currents of time, the convection building up and the patterns that will follow. That puts them at a crucial advantage, because the members of any system might not even be aware of its workings; Leto II could stop whatever plans they have in their tracks simply by disrupting enough inputs into their system.

The Fremen knew how to walk on the desert without the worm hearing them. Siona was a human who could change the course of history without creating a discernible pattern (beforehand) on the Desert of Time. She possessed a degree of unpredictability and independence that kept her exempt from typical social patterns and prescient monitoring. Think about it - she practically alone has the will power to take down a God and an empire. She's not a BG or BT pawn. This is the independence and unpredictability that Leto II wanted to breed into the race, in contrast to the patterns and predictability of history.

(sidenote: The Dune tarot muddies the future for oracles because a large number of people leave their decisions to pure chance, taking them outside any systems whose patterns the oracle may be familiar with.)

So on one hand prescience seems more like deep understanding of human behaviour, but on the other hand it does require some sort of super-natural sensitivity to decision making based on some higher dimension. We turn now to the question of whether an oracle affects the future through vision alone, or whether vision-inspired actions are the only thing that can 'lock-in' a particular path/destiny. I have not searched every novel for quotes, but I have found plenty and they are somewhat inconclusive.

Paul talked of being a chip on the wave of destiny, he could see where the current of time was taking him but couldn't do anything about it. How could this be? What would be the point of prescience in that case? Well let's suppose Paul initially sensed the various signatures, the various currents of time that flowed into the future, and found uncertainty as to how they would interact and CREATE the future. He wants certainty, he wants to know what WILL happen not what might happen, so he continually manipulates events with his political power until his visions become clearer. Unfortunately this proves his undoing as a) he has set forces in motion that are impossible for him to stop/change, and b) knowing exactly what is going to happen and not being able to do anything about it is lethally boring. So that's one interpretation.

However, Leto II set humanity along his Golden Path, a vision of how events should unfold after his death, and the BG believed that his posthumous 'unending dream' in the remaining pearls of his divided consciousness constituted a prescient vision that actively BOUND humans to a particular destiny. ie. the vision alone had influence. How could this be? How could a vision alone effect events without physical action? Well in forming a vision of the future, the oracle has to change variables (if the BG do THIS instead of THAT then... etc), or at least follow some possibilities over others. In order to generate a clear path the oracle must make many choices along the tree of possible paths, and I think the suggestion is that since the oracle is interacting with this higher dimension, those vision-choices feedback into the system and increase the probability of them being realized 'when the time comes.' So that's another interpretation. I think it's supported by the foregrounding Herbert gives it at the end of HoD. If it was supposed to be a misinterpretation on the part of the BG, I doubt FH would have made it the centre of attention.

IMO the point to take about prescience is that it's not just some dumb 'this is what's going to happen, dude' schtick, it relates to Herbert's ruminations about the patterns of history and the truth of human motivations. One thing I'd like to note here is how Herbert's original moment of inspiration for Dune came when he flew over roadside sand-dunes while writing a report on a government terraforming project, and he observed:

"...A sand dune is just a kind of fluid, only it takes longer for it to move. It creates waves that, when you see them from the air, are analogous to waves in a sea."

So there you have the idea of an unnoticed dynamic only apparent with the longterm passage of time. That goes to the heart of things.



... or, you know, something like that
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Re: Prescience

Post by Enno »

Continued from chapter 3 in Reading Group<Dune page 2
SandChigger wrote:
Alpha Carinae wrote:
Freakzilla wrote:
Alpha Carinae wrote:
Enno wrote:Moot or not its still cool to think about.
The only issue I have with that description of prescience is that it sounds like what you desribe is a mentat projection.
Absolutely it's cool to think about...

Then again that discussion is riddled with spoilers! :|

Mentat projection is a way of 'seeing' possible futures, but the oracles in Dune go a little bit further thanks to umm... things they have which mentats don't. :wink:

But hey this is all just my interpretation. :)
...add to that intimate knowledge of the past through other memory...
This is kind of the main thing I was trying to avoid saying. heheh. I guess in the context of Mohiam, this isn't a spoiler.

But yeah, while mentats get ridiculous amounts of training to compute data and make predictions, RMs get crazy training in obtaining data, the massive wealth of OM, and the added bonus of breeding and lots of drugs. Whether you call that prescience or educated guessing... *shrug*.

For me at least, I like the more down-to-earth scientific approach rather than a more mystical interpretation: Prescience is just making predictions about possible futures; some people are better at it than others, some people are lots better at it than others.
We really can't go into it here without spoiling, but I will again voice my objection to Prescient = Mentat + OM
I hope I havent made this leap in error but this did seem a better place to go. Looks like ive got some more reading to do before making any bold statements.
So the two theories we are looking at are The Educated Guess and the Little Something Extra?
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Re: Prescience

Post by Alpha Carinae »

I think everyone in that thread was being intentionally vague to avoid spoiling the story for you and other people who might read that thread in the future. The mechanics of prescience in Dune is really fascinating and in my experience (outside of this board at least, since I'm a newb too :wink: ) people seem to approach it from different angles when they're essentially speaking about the same thing.

I'm not sure about any formal theories but I think the issue here is that since there are various levels of prescient ability described in the books, where do you draw the line and say "This character is prescient and this character is not"?

Is Mohiam's insight that is hinted at in Chapter 3 of Dune (and other places) essentially the same process as a "prescient" but diminished, or is it something else entirely?

Personally, I'm inclined to think that, whatever you want to call it, it's the same basic process but with less umm... power than a guild prescient. But I'm sure other interpretations are equally, if not more, valid.

Also by the way, it's something which is developed and hinted at later than chapter 3, which is another reason for the vaguery. :)
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Re: Prescience

Post by Enno »

I gotta go with the Something Extra way of looking at prescience. Prescient = Mentat + OM couldnt possibly work for guild navigators and the whole thing about not seeing other prescient people doesnt work with an educated guess even if they do know what theyre talking about. With that in mind I do think that Mohiam made an educated guess when she said for the father nothing shes the truthsayer to the emperor and would surely know about the Arrakis trap. The words she uses are like a horoscope in that shes vague enough to be able to claim meaning afterwards no matter what happens. Cmon,"Your son will pay with you... Everymans hand turned against you." The attack is coming and these statements are true even if Paul and Jessica die at the hands of the Harkonnens.
Different levels of prescient ability? Sure. Different methods of employing that ability? Ok. Different basic kinds of prescience? Doubtfull.
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Re: Prescience

Post by Freakzilla »

I see prescience and OM as opposite sides of the same coin, probably repeatedly, in this topic.

Both RMs and Navigators are missing different parts of the equation but both result in a limited form of prescience. Much more so for the BG than the SG.

It is my theory that this is a male/female issue more than an OM/Math issue.
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Re: Prescience

Post by Enno »

Im taking the view that prescience is seeing the future. Anyone can make predicitions and smarter people can do better but that doesnt compare with actually seeing possibilities and I think that prescient people not being able to see each other is proof of a Something Extra type of ability. Other memory added to mentat projection will produce prediction but its only an educated guess and wouldnt have the problem of leaving out other prescients.
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How to see the future ^^

Post by Alpha Carinae »

By the way, where did the mentat + OM thing come from? :? Forgive my ignorance, but it is something that was discussed before on Jacurutu? I vaguely remember seeing something similar somewhere along the lines of Male + OM = Kwisatz Haderach. heheh.

Since we're really getting into it now, here's how I see prescience in Dune as a purely down-to-earth, scientific non-mystical-or-"something extra" thing. :)

There seems to be four factors that determine how well someone can predict the future:


1) Ability to make mental computations. This is something that both mentats and the guild seers get a lot of training in. Mentats do basically make accurate predictions about the future, though you wouldn't call them prescient yet. It can be a subconscious process.

2) Access to data. The best ones at this are undoubtedly Reverend Mothers. Not only are they able to take in minute details that others would miss thanks to their training, but they have access to the wealth of knowledge that is Other Memory. A Kwisatz Haderach would be even better since they get even more data.

3) Breeding. Your genes are important and hold the key to certain factors in the process: things like sensitivity to drugs certainly, chance of surviving agony rituals, maybe "potential" but I don't think that's entirely made clear. The BG practice this and, I thought, so do the Guild... Though KJA/BH don't seem to think so.

4) The right drugs. And lots of them. This is kind of linked to number 2, in that the "awareness spectrum narcotics" described in the books open your awareness up to a plethora of new data for analysis. It's how the fremen feel the Tao in their orgy: their awareness is more receptive to things they would normally miss and so they feel connected. The best drugs are the Spice/WoL perhaps followed by the truthsayer drug.


When you add up all these things you've basically got an oracle. Prescience is not a magical gift from the gods given to the chosen one, rather it was expected, calculated. The Bene Gesserit assumed that the Kwisatz Haderach would have prescient abilities and would be something like a Guild navigator. What they didn't anticipate was the level of ability that the KH gained from other, environmental and nurturing factors.

There does indeed seem to be a line of ability where you would say that this character is prescient and this character is not, but it's not entirely clear where it is. But what does seem to be clear is that everyone who can predict the future does so in a mathematical, calculated way... subconsciously or not.

As for prescients not seeing other prescients ... :shifty: you might think this is silly but... Jedi Lightsaber Battles. :D

Remember in the first Star Wars film when Obi-Wan and Darth Vader were fighting? They didn't actually do very much. At the time when I saw it I assumed it was because they could both see what was going to happen so it was a stalemate, if they tried to do anything fancy there would be a massive game of mental chess going on before any lightsaber action happened.

So yeah, sounds silly right? But what if you have a similar situation with Dune prescience? You get two prescients looking for the actions of the other, every time they look, they spawn a potential future which the other one can see, which spawns another potential future which the other can see... and you get an infinite feedback loop.

I personally think that prescient invisibility can be explained because of this (not only a plot device 8) ), that the act of trying to predict the actions of a prescient is difficult, near impossible because they're busy predicting their own future. The big question of whether the oracle sees the future, or merely chooses it (and what would the difference be) is important here.

Back to Mohiam. In my opinion, it's entirely possible for her to have enough of all of those factors to have prescient visions - vague ones because they're subconscious like Paul's dreams. Though she's certainly not as powerful as a Guild seer.

Err. That turned into quite an essay. Hope it all makes sense :D Again, though - my interpretation only. I'm sure there are better ones on this board :)
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Re: Prescience

Post by Freakzilla »

Alpha Carinae wrote:By the way, where did the mentat + OM thing come from? :? Forgive my ignorance, but it is something that was discussed before on Jacurutu? I vaguely remember seeing something similar somewhere along the lines of Male + OM = Kwisatz Haderach. heheh.
Appendix III: Report on Bene Gesserit Motives and Purposes

The Bene Gesserit program had as its target the breeding of a person they
labeled "Kwisatz Haderach," a term signifying "one who can be many places at
once." In simpler terms, what they sought was a human with mental powers
permitting him to understand and use higher order dimensions.
They were breeding for a super-Mentat, a human computer with some of the
prescient abilities found in Guild navigators. Now, attend these facts
carefully: ...
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Alpha Carinae
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Re: Prescience

Post by Alpha Carinae »

Ah, I see. That's the bit I was talking about when I mentioned the BG were expecting prescience. :)

But that kind of only works if it's a male, so shouldn't it be: Kwisatz Haderach + Mentat = Super Awesome? :D Or do you mean it implies that a KH would have mentat-esque abilities even without training?
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Re: Prescience

Post by Enno »

You make a good arguement Alpha Carinae! Obi and Darths lackluster battle makes sense that way and I can see how that works against an educated guess but Paul couldnt see Fenring (who never realized his prescient potential) and knew what Feyd and Chani looked like. It doesnt explain how the guild can choose a safe path. No amount of OM and computer like ability could produce results so specific.
In simpler terms, what they sought was a human with mental powers
permitting him to understand and use higher order dimensions.
They were breeding for a super-Mentat, a human computer with some of the
prescient abilities found in Guild navigators.
Put another way theyre breeding for a super mentat who can understand and use higher order dimensions like the prescient abilities found in Guild navigators. Ok I may have taken a little liberty with the text here. But still. Without Something Extra what you describe is little more than weather predicting. No amount of data and knowledge alone will produce a prediction so accurate as to become lethally boring.
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Re: Prescience

Post by Serkanner »

I don't want to be to much of a purist but adding Star Wars into a Dune discussion makes me :tissue2:
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Re: Prescience

Post by Alpha Carinae »

Serkanner wrote:I don't want to be to much of a purist but adding Star Wars into a Dune discussion makes me :tissue2:
I'm quite embarrassed myself :oops: ... Not a Star Wars fan at all. But I kind of like the analogy... sorry. :(
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Re: Prescience

Post by Freakzilla »

The Guild doen't need to have specific results, they only need to know that they survive the trip.
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Re: Prescience

Post by Enno »

So you agree that they actually could see the future as opposed to making highly educated mathmatic projections about navigation.
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Re: Prescience

Post by SandChigger »

Prescients see a potential future (or series of them).

The example I always use is Paul's actions after he was blinded by the stone-burner. No amount of Mentat-organized data on past human behavior and reactions to stimuli from Other Memory could have allowed Paul to have vision as accurate as he had after losing his eyes.

And the example of the Guild Navigators is important, too, even though their prescience was more limited: no amount of data about a destination system could permit a Navigator to predict the arrival—in his chosen destination coordinates—of another Guildship coming in from another system at the exact same instant. So if Navigators weren't actually seeing possible futures, there would have been a certain number of collisions and loss of life and ships. Lack of mention does not guarantee non-occurrence, but FH never mentions any Guildship mishaps.

Finally, where the Star Wars (feh!) analogy fails is that the two Jedi could see each other. Duniverse prescients cannot see other prescients in their visions. Period. They can only see shadows and waves of influence, not who casts the shadow or moves things. ;)
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Re: Prescience

Post by Alpha Carinae »

SandChigger wrote:And the example of the Guild Navigators is important, too, even though their prescience was more limited: no amount of data about a destination system could permit a Navigator to predict the arrival—in his chosen destination coordinates—of another Guildship coming in from another system at the exact same instant. So if Navigators weren't actually seeing possible futures, there would have been a certain number of collisions and loss of life and ships. Lack of mention does not guarantee non-occurrence, but FH never mentions any Guildship mishaps.
I hadn't really thought about this situation before. :think: But isn't the guildship collision a possibility regardless of what prescience actually is? I mean, the transit of another guildship is entirely decided by a prescient... whose actions can't be determined by another prescient.

As for the Star Wars analogy... It's a silly film where the magical mechanics weren't thought about at all, as opposed to FH who thought about it a lot. I'm just saying it got me thinking about it at the time: what if I could see possible futures, changing them by looking and I tried to predict the actions of someone who could do (or could potentially do - since I'm looking at potentials) the same thing? I don't think it's just a random plot device or magical power of invisibility. There's reason behind it and Frank obviously put a lot of thought into it.

Wish I hadn't mentioned Star Wars, though. :oops: :(

Oh, and to be completely honest, I don't really see why Paul couldn't have had that accurate a vision based on all the data he had available. Especially when you consider how hard he worked to to set it up and make-real that particular vision and then firmly refuse to deviate from it in spite of everything. That's what makes it so tragic.
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