Global Economic Crisis: Should I be afraid?

[Nebiros]

Since January of this year there has been a lot on a global economic crisis.

In America I hear of a housing crisis, a weak dollar, rising oil prices and a fear of a recession.

I hear about Banks in Britain and the US closing or being saved by the government.

Around the world, I hear of again rising food prices, rising oil prices and an economic crisis here in Asia as a result of the weak US dollar.

I'm no expert on the stock market, and the numbers with the red and green arrows on the evening news are utterly meaningless to me.

I don't need to worry about rising food prices because by most standards I am rich and don't need to cut back. However I should be concerned for the poor and middle class because the food prices will affect them. As for oil, well I walk to work and perhaps I should use public transport more to not go over budget. So I'm not really worried.

Those red arrows on TV do not scare me. Financial experts say that the economy will recover by next year. Global warming I am afraid of but not the economic woes of today. Yet I keep hearing about it on the news. So should somebody like me really be afraid? And is anyone in this forum afraid?

[Freakzilla]

REPENT! THE END IS NIGH!

[Spicelon]

If you're an American, get used to the New World Order. The dollar won't be
bouncing back any time soon, if ever. Don't be surprised if you see more big
US corporations a la Anheuser-Bush get bought out.

[Omphalos]

The American dollar probably will bounce back in the mid term, but I dont think it will ever be as valueable as it once was. The fact of the matter is that its value relative to other currencies will slip, but I think that there are going to be a lot of things that happen in the future that will at least stabilize it, then bring its relative worth up in the world market. Im happy to talk about those things if anyone ever wants to. But I think that the next serious risk will be foreign countries dispersement of dollar reserves that they have. NObody in their right mind would do that now because it would just kill the American enonomy, which is still one of the biggest and most consumer driven in the world. But it is a risk on the far horizon.

The real question is how far American consumers will be willing to go to support the total globalization efforts. If the ride is too roller-coastery in the short term, then I think we are going to see a push to penalize American businesses who move so much infrastructure abroad. Ive heard Obama talk about that already, and Im not sure its the best idea. For example, what business would want to remain an American citizen if it gets penalized for doing its best to maximize profits by moving aborad, and if coming back here will hurt it? Not many, I suppose. And even thought that would create new opportunity here, I think that unless the tariff structure were to change, and it cannot right now, that we would wind up being the losers under that kind of policy.

On the other hand, I have been wondering lately how much gas and other energy prices are pushing American companies to repatriate manufacturing here in the US. If the average price for a gallon of gas goes over say $5 opr $6 dollars, I would bet that a lot of the business that has moved overseas would come back. Probably not call centers and stuff like that, but light and heavy manufacturing for sure, at least until other economies are capable of supporting the comsumption that we are.

[A Thing of Eternity]

I wish people would stop using the US dollar as a measuring stick. Not very usefull when the stick keeps changing length. Everyone had a blast in Canada when our $ shot up above the US$... until we found out that ours hadn't really moved, the US$ had just tanked. I don't understand why there isn't a hypothetical "earth dollar/unit" which doesn't change that could be used as standard to compare to.



What do I know though, maybe that's a retarded idea.

[Freakzilla]

I don't understand why there isn't a hypothetical "earth dollar/unit" which doesn't change that could be used as standard to compare to.

You mean something like Gold?

[Spicelon]

I wish people would stop using the US dollar as a measuring stick.

Well, I use it because it's what my salary is based on and paid with.

[Nekhrun]

Since January of this year there has been a lot on a global economic crisis.

In America I hear of a housing crisis, a weak dollar, rising oil prices and a fear of a recession.

I hear about Banks in Britain and the US closing or being saved by the government.

Around the world, I hear of again rising food prices, rising oil prices and an economic crisis here in Asia as a result of the weak US dollar.

I'm no expert on the stock market, and the numbers with the red and green arrows on the evening news are utterly meaningless to me.

I don't need to worry about rising food prices because by most standards I am rich and don't need to cut back. However I should be concerned for the poor and middle class because the food prices will affect them. As for oil, well I walk to work and perhaps I should use public transport more to not go over budget. So I'm not really worried.

Those red arrows on TV do not scare me. Financial experts say that the economy will recover by next year. Global warming I am afraid of but not the economic woes of today. Yet I keep hearing about it on the news. So should somebody like me really be afraid? And is anyone in this forum afraid?

I smell an article on its way.

[Phaedrus]

I'm no expert on the stock market, and the numbers with the red and green arrows on the evening news are utterly meaningless to me.

I'm no expert on the stock market, either, but I can tell you this. Lots of numbers going down is bad, lots of numbers going up is good.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI

I don't understand why there isn't a hypothetical "earth dollar/unit" which doesn't change that could be used as standard to compare to.

You mean something like Gold?

There isn't a standard value because there AREN'T standard values. Think about it. Basically, money is just a convenient way of applying values to things. Obviously, different cultures value things differently. Supply/demand is different in various places. People get paid different amounts in various places, and lawd knows governments spend different amounts on different things. We're off the gold standard for a reason.

My favorite example(Dune readers should appreciate): Two bucks for a bottle of water seems outrageous, unless you live in a desert. Then that's cheap.

[A Thing of Eternity]

I don't understand why there isn't a hypothetical "earth dollar/unit" which doesn't change that could be used as standard to compare to.

You mean something like Gold?

The value of gold fluctuates too does it not?

EDIT to add:

I don't understand why there isn't a hypothetical "earth dollar/unit" which doesn't change that could be used as standard to compare to.

You mean something like Gold?

even gold changes in value relative to other currencies... the only problem with a static standard is inflation will eventually make the numbers drastically high or low anyways so you need a dynamic standard, if only periodically changing to accomodate this.

Right, they'd have to build in some kind of inflation or it'd get really annoying - then again, annoying isn't that big a deal.

Phaed, I know what you're saying (and I agree) but I'm not talking about comparing every currency to one standard good, I'd just like a unit of measurement (based on nothing in particular) for currencies. Economics is not something I've read into much though, so you may be totally correct in saying that since all value is subjective it could be impossible to have a "standard unit", I've heard the logic you put forward on this issue before and it makes sense. Still pisses me off though

[Phaedrus]

Phaed, I know what you're saying (and I agree) but I'm not talking about comparing every currency to one standard good, I'd just like a unit of measurement (based on nothing in particular) for currencies. Economics is not something I've read into much though, so you may be totally correct in saying that since all value is subjective it could be impossible to have a "standard unit", I've heard the logic you put forward on this issue before and it makes sense. Still pisses me off though

You could always pick one currency at one particular date and compare everything to that. Like, express all values in 1980 USD. But that requires knowing inflation rates and conversions and all that...it's a lot of work.

[A Thing of Eternity]

Phaed, I know what you're saying (and I agree) but I'm not talking about comparing every currency to one standard good, I'd just like a unit of measurement (based on nothing in particular) for currencies. Economics is not something I've read into much though, so you may be totally correct in saying that since all value is subjective it could be impossible to have a "standard unit", I've heard the logic you put forward on this issue before and it makes sense. Still pisses me off though

You could always pick one currency at one particular date and compare everything to that. Like, express all values in 1980 USD. But that requires knowing inflation rates and conversions and all that...it's a lot of work.

It'd be a tonne of work... but it'd help the ignorant masses (myself included) better understand world economics and the state of said economics. Might help people make smarter descisions.

[SandChigger]

Might help people make smarter descisions.

You're so funny sometimes!

[A Thing of Eternity]

Might help people make smarter descisions.

You're so funny sometimes!

Might help non-idiots who happpen to be somewhat poorly informed on economics make smarter decisions?

[SandChigger]

Yeah, but wouldn't informed idiots as consumer agents throw a moneky wrench into most economic theories and simulations?

[A Thing of Eternity]

Mby... oh well.

[chanilover]

The guys who run the markets aren't economists, they're just trying to make money for themselves. Economists are full of shit and don't know what they're talking about.

As for currency fluctuations, currencies are treated like any other commodity and are subject to the laws of supply and demand. No one really wants to buy dollars for investment at the moment, the rate of return isn't high enough with US interest rates being relatively low. The US will keep interest rates low as they'r terrified of recession, whilst here in Europe our central banks are more concerned with trying to control inflation, although they're not dong a good job of it.

[Secher_Nbiw]

personally, as much as it will more than likely screw me over, i half look forward to this economic crisis. it's about time it happened, it's been building up for so long, and people are just too dumb to realise that what goes up, must come crashing down too. then again, this wouldn't be happening if people didn't get so greedy and actually lived off what they earnt, not what they borrowed and borrowed again. this crisis will give us the chance to reset the balance,. bring down house prices so we can actually afford housing. it will aslo give everyone a good perspective on how to handle financing in the future, and perhaps bring stronger measures against banks and credit companies who have screwed not only those they borrowed to, but alos those that screwed themselves.

[Freakzilla]

I think they should let me pay less for my house. That would fix everything.

[orald]

They should give me a free house and then everything will be A-OK with the economy.

[Shadout]

By themselves financial crisis, food crisis, oil prices etc. probably isnt that much of a crisis. Its either short-term, or something fixable. But when they all hit together, influence and enhance each other it could get a bit ugly.
Especially since economy beneath all the theory is so much depending on psychology. Nothing can create a crisis better than everyone believing its there. And with all these different issues currently, people have surely been yelling 'crisis' for a while now.

Probably not something to be afraid of just yet. What I would rather be afraid of is politicians overreacting, trying to gain public support by abusing the situation etc.

[Phaedrus]

By themselves financial crisis, food crisis, oil prices etc. probably isnt that much of a crisis. Its either short-term, or something fixable. But when they all hit together, influence and enhance each other it could get a bit ugly.

Probably not something to be afraid of just yet. What I would rather be afraid of is politicians overreacting, trying to gain public support by abusing the situation etc.

On the other hand, we could be beginning to see the consequences of a global economic system that's geared towards short term profit profit profit rather than long term perpetuation and rational conservation of resources. I heard some science fiction author once wrote about something like that. I wonder who he was?

I hope the whole goddamn world burns. It's only what it deserves.

[orald]

You realize you'll be burning with it, right? Heck, fire ain't no way for man to die.

For a woman, yes. Especially feminists.


Personally I'm planning on going to my under-visited, useless family doctor(whoever he/she may be...they keep changing every few months/years it seems) and get a fuckload of sleeping pills under various excuses and take them all at once, maybe with some booze. But that's just me.

[Ampoliros]

Did KJA design our economic structure? Seems that way. All kind of Plot Holes and plot investments that look to be going somewhere and yet sadly, in the end everything is gonna get solved by the Normacle.

Who doesn't exist, never should have.


We are so f*cked.


However i think it is time for such a desolation, its the only way any real change will come about.

[Phaedrus]

Did KJA design our economic structure? Seems that way. All kind of Plot Holes and plot investments that look to be going somewhere and yet sadly, in the end everything is gonna get solved by the Normacle.

No, but he did study it for pointers.

Except I doubt he could actually understand our economic structure. Even if he DOES know how to turn a profit. ("Hmm...I can write books...put the names of bestselling franchises on them...I'll earn money, AND be established as a prolific bestselling SF author! I'm brilliant! Let me go get George Lucas and that Herbert fellow on the phone. They'll agree if I only offer them a modest share of the profits. Fuck you, shitty technical writing job!")

You realize you'll be burning with it, right? Heck, fire ain't no way for man to die.

Speak for yourself. We heretics burn at the stake or not at all.