Jᴀᴄᴜʀᴜᴛᴜ - Tʜᴇ Cᴀsᴛ Oᴜᴛ

...although I'd like to add: if FH has taught anything at all through his works, it's that the LONG view is the way to go... if you care about the species and it's survival, and 'success', in the far distant future. Or even if you care about terrestrial life as a whole, over and above just love of general humanity...

I began thinking about this stuff when I read GEoD, and over the years I've thought about (and debated) this: I love humanity, and care if we survive 500,000 years or more in the future -I hope we exist in some form or other until the entropic death of the universe, or until the big 'crunch' or whatever happens at the 'end'... I think it's 100% possible to begin planning NOW.

I get laughed at alot, too

Well, I'm not particularly bothered either way. If there are still "people" 500,000 years from now, they will probably be very different from anything we would now consider "human".

Going back to the other, I think the point was that our signals are so weak that they degrade to the point of indistinguishability from the cosmic background noise before one light year out, so you'd have to be closer than that to Sol before you could detect anything. (And why would someone be that close if they weren't headed here in the first place. If you're just passing through you'd want to steer clear of stars and any associated outer halo debris.) It's not like even super-advanced sensors can detect something that's petered out before it gets to them.

Have we changed so much in 200,000 years? I don't think we'll be that different in 500,000.

I wouldn't worry in the least about sending out something that could "comprimise our safety" - anything that is capable of travelling from one solar system to another would have no problem wiping us off the face of the Earth. The technology and power involved in even a slower than light interestellar mission would put them so far ahead of us that I doubt we could raise a finger to stop them.

SandChigger wrote:Going back to the other, I think the point was that our signals are so weak that they degrade to the point of indistinguishability from the cosmic background noise before one light year out, so you'd have to be closer than that to Sol before you could detect anything. (And why would someone be that close if they weren't headed here in the first place. If you're just passing through you'd want to steer clear of stars and any associated outer halo debris.) It's not like even super-advanced sensors can detect something that's petered out before it gets to them.

I see where you're going with that, but it's mainly higher frequency radiation that doesn't travel well for long distances (if I'm not mistaken), since it's easily scattered by small particles. SETI looks at long wavelength radio signals because radio waves travel straight through the large amounts of dust in our galaxy... also hydrogen (the most abundant element) radiates at around 1420 MHz. Wouldn't any technologically advanced civilization that wants to study the galaxy be looking at this wavelength (or a multiple thereof) and understand its importance? I'm not sure, but haven't we been emitting at that wavelength (and others) for at least 75 years? (I know that in the last 15-20 years we've been much more efficient, with far fewer omni-directional broadcasts on all frequencies, but that leaves a window of 50 years possible detection time or so, still... no?)

Also, lately they've been working on strategies to identify lifezone planets, and one of them is to exclude all data collected that can be identified as coming from the star and/or other readily identifiable stellar phenomena - thereby deducing that any remaining data must come from the rest of the system (hoping that some of the data will show potential 'Earths'). If we can do this successfully (and this is in the readily detected EM spectrum), then there's no reason to assume that any potential alien civilization canNOT do that too, no? So then they can just see us, if they're looking...

And also - if we employed our present tech know-how to deploy a network of system-wide scanning telescopes, of any kind, then we'd increase our range and resolution dramatically - who's to say others can't, won't, or haven't already done this? And I'm not even talking about 'super-sensors' - I have no doubt that 'super-sensors' can be developed, but I don't think they're needed (with respect to this topic) if we can just 'look' and 'see' that there's a planet that's not acting 'normal', you know?

what do you think?

Baraka Bryan wrote:

Freakzilla wrote:Have we changed so much in 200,000 years? I don't think we'll be that different in 500,000.

interesting discussion. there are some who would think our development as a species will accellerate as a result of technology... that the change will become exponentially faster compared to our development over the past X years.

others would argue that technology will stagnate development as we focus our efforts on augmenting our abilities through the use of technology, rather than developing ourselves any further.

I believe Frank fell into the latter bucket, as human development was stagnated by society, and then after the BJ, the restrictions forced people to develop themselves and schools were formed to emphasize various areas like pure mathematics or politics.

I agree, FH did fall into that latter category - the restrictions on tech development leading to greater and greater human development - but realistically speaking, do we think that's going to happen with us? Singularity a la Vinge could happen within that timeframe, or our tech development could lead us to far stranger things, but species-wide condemnation of technological development? Seems unlikely, however appealing it sounds.

...but bottom line is that I agree with Freak, in that humans will probably exist as 'baseline' humans even 500,000 years from now... especially if disaster strikes, and we revert to hunter-gatherer mode, or thereabouts (world war that stops short of killing us all, or bio-weapons that kill a vast majority of the population - anything that leaves humans without infrastructure or tech for planet-wide civilization - we'll be sitting ducks for any species that decides to visit, even if they're altruistic and all that jazz). IMHO

A Thing of Eternity wrote:I wouldn't worry in the least about sending out something that could "comprimise our safety" - anything that is capable of travelling from one solar system to another would have no problem wiping us off the face of the Earth. The technology and power involved in even a slower than light interestellar mission would put them so far ahead of us that I doubt we could raise a finger to stop them.

hmmm... that's a good point... so maybe we should make sure we advance to the level where we can send out our own interstellar missions, asap! Then we'll at least have a chance to deal with aliens on an even playing field...

grandmastercrafter wrote:

A Thing of Eternity wrote:I wouldn't worry in the least about sending out something that could "comprimise our safety" - anything that is capable of travelling from one solar system to another would have no problem wiping us off the face of the Earth. The technology and power involved in even a slower than light interestellar mission would put them so far ahead of us that I doubt we could raise a finger to stop them.

hmmm... that's a good point... so maybe we should make sure we advance to the level where we can send out our own interstellar missions, asap! Then we'll at least have a chance to deal with aliens on an even playing field...

Sending out our DNA could be percieved as biological warfare and draw unwanted attention.

Freakzilla wrote:

grandmastercrafter wrote:

A Thing of Eternity wrote:I wouldn't worry in the least about sending out something that could "comprimise our safety" - anything that is capable of travelling from one solar system to another would have no problem wiping us off the face of the Earth. The technology and power involved in even a slower than light interestellar mission would put them so far ahead of us that I doubt we could raise a finger to stop them.

hmmm... that's a good point... so maybe we should make sure we advance to the level where we can send out our own interstellar missions, asap! Then we'll at least have a chance to deal with aliens on an even playing field...

Sending out our DNA could be percieved as biological warfare and draw unwanted attention.

And sending out a vinyl record could be perceived as sonic warfare!

If we sent out DNA I do think it would be best to just have it written down, not actual DNA.

A Thing of Eternity wrote:

Freakzilla wrote:

grandmastercrafter wrote:

A Thing of Eternity wrote:I wouldn't worry in the least about sending out something that could "comprimise our safety" - anything that is capable of travelling from one solar system to another would have no problem wiping us off the face of the Earth. The technology and power involved in even a slower than light interestellar mission would put them so far ahead of us that I doubt we could raise a finger to stop them.

hmmm... that's a good point... so maybe we should make sure we advance to the level where we can send out our own interstellar missions, asap! Then we'll at least have a chance to deal with aliens on an even playing field...

Sending out our DNA could be percieved as biological warfare and draw unwanted attention.

And sending out a vinyl record could be perceived as sonic warfare!

If we sent out DNA I do think it would be best to just have it written down, not actual DNA.

Sending a book by Pinky and the Brain would be considered a crime against the multiverse.

Actually, more research has shown me that we have sent out images of DNA with the Voyager probes.

Wikipedia wrote:The collection of images includes many photographs and diagrams both in black and white and color. The first images are of scientific interest, showing mathematical and physical quantities, the solar system and its planets, DNA, and human anatomy and reproduction. Care was taken to include not only pictures of humanity, but also some of animals, insects, plants and landscapes. Images of humanity depict a broad range of cultures. These images show food, architecture, and humans in portraits as well as going about their day to day lives. Many pictures are annotated with one or more indications of scales of time, size, or mass. Some images contain indications of chemical composition. All measures used on the pictures are defined in the first few images using physical references that are likely to be consistent anywhere in the universe.

As far as sonic warfare...

Wikipedia wrote:The musical selection is also varied, featuring artists such as Beethoven, Mozart, Bach, and Stravinsky and Chuck Berry.

Apjak wrote:
The Voyager Plaque and................. Pioneer Plaque respectively

This is what we sent out to extra terrestrial life to say "Hi There". I wonder what we'd send out now-a-days. Think we'd send some DNA, or a representation thereof?

We also sent out that "Sounds of Earth" 12'' LP


I wonder if today we'd send out a gold-anodized aluminum iPod.

Wasn't there a double helix on one of these? Have I confused that notion with something else?

Meanwhile, to take a small liberty with Douglas Adams stuff, distance and signal strength are moot. What could we possibly do to attract the attention of a hyperintelligent shade of blue even if it were standing next to us? Years ago I read a short story about creatures from the sun who, during space travel, had mysteriously lost a ship to an anomalous gravity phenominon.(Earth) The point is they lacked the ability to perceive us, as a side note, they descibed iron as 'one of the higher gasses.'

edit; I guess you beat me to it, well done Apjak!

Apjak wrote:Actually, more research has shown me that we have sent out images of DNA with the Voyager probes.

Wikipedia wrote:The collection of images includes many photographs and diagrams both in black and white and color. The first images are of scientific interest, showing mathematical and physical quantities, the solar system and its planets, DNA, and human anatomy and reproduction. Care was taken to include not only pictures of humanity, but also some of animals, insects, plants and landscapes. Images of humanity depict a broad range of cultures. These images show food, architecture, and humans in portraits as well as going about their day to day lives. Many pictures are annotated with one or more indications of scales of time, size, or mass. Some images contain indications of chemical composition. All measures used on the pictures are defined in the first few images using physical references that are likely to be consistent anywhere in the universe.

As far as sonic warfare...

Wikipedia wrote:The musical selection is also varied, featuring artists such as Beethoven, Mozart, Bach, and Stravinsky and Chuck Berry.

...what the... I knew we sent out stuff, but I didn't think we'd gone that far...
So we just have to hope that no one can a) find Voyager, and that SandChigger is correct, that no one b) can see us. (at least until we're closer to achieving a Kardashev Type II civilization, that could harness all the power available from our sun, at least)

Um, I think I was referring to no one hearing/seeing our leaky signals.

If we can build a system wide interferometer telescope and obtain ultra-plus-make-KJA-cream-himself-with-these-prefixes-super-duper high resolution images of other systems, there's nothing to keep anyone else from doing it, either. "WE SEE YOU!" works both ways.

And... Evolution never stops. Period. Even if we fill our heads with implanted equipment and other augmentations, there will still be adaptation going on. Maybe just in different forms.

Maybe there will always be a place for "baseline" humans. Leto kept his pet Museum Fremen, after all. Maybe the future will still have zoos.

D Pope wrote:Wasn't there a double helix on one of these? Have I confused that notion with something else?

Might you be thinking of the Aricebo Message?



HBJ

I expect that was it, double DOH!
Well Done again HBJ!

No DOH! necessary. Same goal, different medium.

HBJ

Just because i've had a few beers, made it home from darts w/out getting arrested, and for no other good reason, here's my rant on alien life.
Just for a moment, lets say there is no God. That means life here is a mistake; all the stuff just lined up one day and POOF! LIFE! Organic matter! Next thing you know, we're here thinking about it. Well, you guys are smart so i'm not going to waste a lot of time discussing infinity, if you haven't heard of the million monkey method- look it up. So, Life... If it can happen here it can and has happened elsewhere. There's no way around it just like there's no such thing as unique in an infinite universe. Not only does everything you can imagine exist, but an infinite amount of things you can't imagine are out there, waiting. Somewhere, probably not very close, is a planet given to life forms that look like cartoons- Scooby Doo, to be exact, living lives to a canned laugh track and running from ex-amusement park owners who, for various reasons, disguise themselves as ghosts. It's a silly example, but I try to make the point, in an infinite universe, nothing is impossible. Having said that, I say that the strongest arguement for alien life is the governments denial of flying saucers.
So, lets say there is a God, and He made everything. Does it seem likely to you that Earth is the only 'fishbowl' on his shelf? First off, God had a whole entorage before he decided to make anything. There was some drama with his favorite that got put to bed, then an after party, I expect, then, for no reason I can imagine other than sheer boredom, he said let there be light- and there was and then the grand expirement began. Planet bound beings, having been told of the stick and the carrot, are given just enough free will to hang themselves. Now I can't think like God, but I can't imagine that one planet could be the totality of His inquiry. He's looking for an answer or he wouldn't have done anything. Little chance of us ever meeting another fishbowl, that'd skew the test. Or would that be the test?

Well, i'm pretty sure there's more life out there. I'm also pretty sure that in finding alien life, we'll most likely have some redefining to do. In the short run, lets all try to be nice to each other and remember that some people exist to be bad examples.

SandChigger wrote:Um, I think I was referring to no one hearing/seeing our leaky signals.

Oh - I was interpreting that as no one 'seeing' us - more accurately, perceiving us... my bad

No bad, it's all good.

D Pope wrote:Just because i've had a few beers, made it home from darts w/out getting arrested, and for no other good reason, here's my rant on alien life.
Just for a moment, lets say there is no God. That means life here is a mistake; all the stuff just lined up one day and POOF! LIFE! Organic matter! Next thing you know, we're here thinking about it.

Well, I wouldn't say it was a *mistake* - that's a value judgment - but if you mean that it happened spontaneously with no evidence of "intent" then yes, certainly. If there is no God.

The fact that we're here thinking about it is pretty mind-blowing, incidentally. I mean the thinking part. We could probably come up with a developmental model of biological intelligence based on inquiry into origins. For example:

0. I think, therefore I am.
1. Where did I come from?
2. Where did *we* come from?
3. Where did *all this* come from?

Well, you guys are smart so i'm not going to waste a lot of time discussing infinity, if you haven't heard of the million monkey method- look it up. So, Life... If it can happen here it can and has happened elsewhere. There's no way around it just like there's no such thing as unique in an infinite universe.

Agreed. Infinity is not required (and is not likely, from what we know) for life to be probable. The chemical reactions required for simple life (as we know it) to evolve are pretty rudimentary. It would be staggeringly *unlikely* for those reactions not to have happened elsewhere. Given the right conditions, it's hard to imagine them *not* happening, frankly.

Evolution of intelligent life may be a different issue, but given the (finite) number of opportunities, over the whole history of the universe to date, for it to have happened, then the chances seem really good.

Not only does everything you can imagine exist, but an infinite amount of things you can't imagine are out there, waiting. Somewhere, probably not very close, is a planet given to life forms that look like cartoons- Scooby Doo, to be exact, living lives to a canned laugh track and running from ex-amusement park owners who, for various reasons, disguise themselves as ghosts. It's a silly example, but I try to make the point, in an infinite universe, nothing is impossible.

Yes, but again, infinity is not a requirement for this. Even a large number of finite worlds doesn't preclude Scooby-Doo world.

Having said that, I say that the strongest arguement for alien life is the governments denial of flying saucers.

Don't buy that, personally. The strongest argument for aliens is the math. And I don't believe that anything the government says must automatically be untrue until proven otherwise.

So, lets say there is a God, and He made everything. Does it seem likely to you that Earth is the only 'fishbowl' on his shelf? First off, God had a whole entorage before he decided to make anything. There was some drama with his favorite that got put to bed, then an after party, I expect, then, for no reason I can imagine other than sheer boredom, he said let there be light- and there was and then the grand expirement began. Planet bound beings, having been told of the stick and the carrot, are given just enough free will to hang themselves. Now I can't think like God, but I can't imagine that one planet could be the totality of His inquiry. He's looking for an answer or he wouldn't have done anything. Little chance of us ever meeting another fishbowl, that'd skew the test. Or would that be the test?

If there's a God, then us discovering other fishbowls is *totally* part of the test.

Edit: I'm an athiest, incidentally. But I know what God wants.

HBJ

Hunchback Jack wrote: The strongest argument for aliens is the math.

I assume you're referring to the Drake equation?



I think even assuming it's a given (which it isn't), I'd like to see someone make a guess as to the probability that any of those races of life forms would ever be sophisticated enough to do long division (something not too hard for a second grader, yet something too difficult for many of the high schoolers I work with).

I think this is another thing that FH had enormous foresight into. At least with Dune and the Pandora series, humans are the first interstellar sojourners inflicting ourselves on known space; we run into non-terran life with mixed results, but we continue to adapt.

I love you guys!

You're still drunk, aren't you?

Hunchback Jack wrote:

So, lets say there is a God, and He made everything. Does it seem likely to you that Earth is the only 'fishbowl' on his shelf? First off, God had a whole entorage before he decided to make anything. There was some drama with his favorite that got put to bed, then an after party, I expect, then, for no reason I can imagine other than sheer boredom, he said let there be light- and there was and then the grand expirement began. Planet bound beings, having been told of the stick and the carrot, are given just enough free will to hang themselves. Now I can't think like God, but I can't imagine that one planet could be the totality of His inquiry. He's looking for an answer or he wouldn't have done anything. Little chance of us ever meeting another fishbowl, that'd skew the test. Or would that be the test?

If there's a God, then us discovering other fishbowls is *totally* part of the test.

Edit: I'm an athiest, incidentally. But I know what God wants.

HBJ

I think that would make our origins from God's Holy Boredome a little more tollerable.